Thaum Lub Kaum Hli 2023, kev ua haujlwm ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam tooj liab tau pom plaub yam hauv qab no:
(1) Kev tsim khoom thiab kev lag luam ntawm tooj liab smelting lag luam yog qhov ruaj khov
Thaum Lub Kaum Hli, kev lag luam hauv tsev tooj liab smelting kev lag luam tau ruaj khov ntau lawm tag nrho. Cov zis tau raug txo qis vim qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev lag luam txij nkawm. Kev cuam tshuam los ntawm kev txo qis kev siv peev txheej thaum lub sijhawm National Day so, cov khoom siv ntawm cov hlwv tooj liab thiab cov seem tooj liab yog nruj, uas inhibits qhov kev tso tawm ntawm qee lub peev xwm ntau lawm. Cov zis tso tawm tshiab tso rau hauv lub peev xwm ntau lawm thaum Lub Kaum Hli yog txwv heev. Raws li qhov tshwm sim, txawm hais tias cov khoom siv tooj liab tau nce ntau xyoo-rau-xyoo nyob rau lub Kaum Hlis, Nws nyuaj rau kev txhim kho piv rau lub hli dhau los.
Thaum Lub Kaum Hli, qhov chaw TC tus nqi ntawm tooj liab tsom tau hloov pauv hauv thaj tsam ntawm 85. Thaum Lub Kaum Hli, cov nqi ua cov nqi tooj liab tseem poob qis raws li lub hli dhau los. Kev xa tawm txawv teb chaws ntawm tooj liab concentrate tseem nyob ruaj khov, kev xa khoom muaj peev xwm tseem nyob rau theem ib txwm, thiab tag nrho cov tooj liab concentrate cov khoom tau ruaj khov.
(2) Cov khoom lag luam hauv qab thiab cov khoom lag luam davhlau ya nyob twg tuaj tos
Thaum Lub Kaum Hli, kev lag luam tooj liab hauv qab tooj liab tau rov zoo tag nrho, thiab kev ua haujlwm ntawm cov lag luam tau zoo dua li qhov xav tau. Hauv kev tsim khoom thiab kev lag luam ntawm ntau yam kev lag luam, kev siv cov tooj liab rods yog qhov zoo, thiab cov nqi ua ntawm tooj liab rods tau nce ntau. Kev txhawb los ntawm daim phiaj hluav taws xob txiav txim, cov tuam txhab tooj liab loj loj tau tswj xyuas tag nrho cov khoom. Ntawm lawv, qhov kev khiav hauj lwm tus nqi ntawm refined tooj liab pas nrig tuam txhab uas muag tau poob me ntsis los ntawm lub hli dhau los tab sis tau nce ntau dua piv nrog rau tib lub sij hawm xyoo tas los; cov raj tooj liab thiab tooj liab phaj thiab sawb kev lag luam kuj ua tau zoo. Tsav los ntawm qhov kev thov davhlau ya nyob twg, cov nqi khiav haujlwm tau nce; nyob rau hauv kev lag luam tooj liab ntawv ci, vim tsis zoo kev txiav txim tshiab nyob rau hauv lub hwj chim cia ua lag luam, tus nqi khiav hauj lwm ntawm Lidian tooj liab ntawv nyiaj tau poob qis.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm kev lag luam davhlau ya nyob twg, cov nyiaj ua tiav kev nqis peev hauv kuv lub teb chaws cov phiaj xwm hluav taws xob txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv, thiab kev nqis peev hauv cov phiaj xwm hluav taws xob thiab cov phiaj xwm hluav taws xob tau tswj hwm kev loj hlob tsis tu ncua piv nrog rau xyoo tas los, ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob huv tseem suav nrog qhov loj. kev faib ua feem; kev lag luam tsheb feem ntau qhia tau hais tias "lub caij off-season tsis muaj zog, thiab lub caij nyoog siab tshaj yog kev vam meej." trend, tsheb lag luam tseem kub heev, cov nyhuv "Golden Nine thiab Silver Ten" tau rov tshwm sim, kev tsim tsheb thiab kev muag khoom tau ntaus cov ntaub ntawv siab rau tib lub sijhawm hauv keeb kwm, lub zog tshiab tsheb thiab tsheb xa tawm tseem ua tau zoo; Lub sijhawm destocking hauv tsev ntawm kev lag luam cua txias yog los txog rau qhov kawg, tsav tsheb rov qab ntawm kev lag luam xaj, thiab tib lub sijhawm Kev xav tau hauv kev lag luam txawv teb chaws tau khaws, thiab kev nce hauv kev xa tawm tau txhawb nqa kev ruaj ntseg ntawm cov cua txias. kev lag luam.
(3) Tus nqi tooj liab tau nce xyoo-rau-xyoo thiab txuas ntxiv poob qis me ntsis rau lub hli
Thaum Lub Kaum Hli, LME Lub Peb Hlis Ntuj tooj liab qhib ntawm US $ 8,283.5 / ton, nrog siab ntawm US $ 8,331 / ton thaum Lub Kaum Hli 2, qis qis ntawm US $ 7,856 / ton rau Lub Kaum Hli 23, thiab kaw ntawm US $ 8,119 / ton, siab tshaj qhov kawg ntawm qhov lub hli dhau los. Nws poob los ntawm US $ 156 / ton, lossis 1.9%. Thaum Lub Kaum Hli, qhov nruab nrab LME tooj liab tus nqi rau lub hli tam sim no thiab peb lub hlis tom ntej yog US $ 7,939 / ton thiab US $ 8,014 / ton feem, nce 5.2% thiab 5.7% xyoo-rau-xyoo, thiab nqis 4% thiab 3.6% lub hli. -on-month feem.
Hauv kev ua lag luam hauv tsev, thaum lub sij hawm Mid-Autumn Festival thiab National Day hnub so, Shanghai tooj liab tsis muaj zog thiab hloov pauv hauv kev lag luam hauv tsev. Tus nqi tooj liab tau rov zoo dua thaum kawg ntawm lub hli. Qhov nruab nrab SHFE tooj liab tus nqi rau lub hli tam sim no thiab peb lub hlis tom ntej yog 66,715 yuan / ton thiab 66,498 yuan / ton feem, nce 5.5% thiab 9% xyoo-rau-xyoo, thiab hli-rau-hli. poob 2.9% thiab 2.9%.
(4) Ntshuam ntawm refined tooj liab thiab seem tooj liab tau nce
Raws li kev lis kev cai txheeb cais, refined tooj liab ntshuam nyob rau hauv lub Cuaj Hli Ntuj yog 344, 000 tons, ib xyoo-rau-xyoo txo ntawm 5.4% thiab ib hlis-rau-hli nce ntawm 0.8%. Kev xa tawm ntim ntawm refined tooj liab nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli tau nce ntxiv piv rau lub hli dhau los, feem ntau vim hais tias txawv teb chaws refined tooj liab tau concentrated hauv Hong Kong. Lub qhov rais ntshuam ntawm refined tooj liab tseem qhib nyob rau nruab nrab mus rau lub Cuaj Hli Ntuj, thiab raws li tus nqi tooj liab poob, downstream txaus siab rau kev yuav khoom tau nce. Tsis tas li ntawd, thaum lub Cuaj Hli Ntuj Lub Cuaj Hli Tus nqi sib txawv ntawm kev ua kom zoo thiab cov khoom seem yog rov qab, thiab kev txhim kho lub luag haujlwm ntawm refined tooj liab hauv kev hloov cov seem tooj liab tau ua rau ib hlis-rau-hli nce hauv cov khoom siv tooj liab refined.
Nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli, qhov ntim ntawm cov khoom seem tooj liab tau nce xyoo-rau-hli, nrog rau cov khoom ntim tau nce mus txog 170, 000 tons, ib xyoo-rau-xyoo nce ntawm 2% thiab ib hlis-rau-lub hlis nce ntawm 9.1. %. Nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli, cov khoom ua kom zoo dua cov nqi sib txawv tau hloov los ntawm qhov tsim nyog rau upside down. Feem ntau cov khoom siv tooj liab tuav cov khoom lag luam uas muaj nqi siab thiab tsis txaus siab rau nkoj. Kev xa khoom ntawm cov khoom siv tooj liab hauv kev lag luam tau nruj. Downstream tooj liab ua cov nroj tsuag txuas ntxiv muaj cov khoom seem tooj liab tsawg. Downstream tooj liab seem Muaj qee qhov kev thov, yog li peb tig peb cov xim rau cov khoom seem tooj liab.
Nws yog thawj zaug xav tias Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam tooj liab kev lag luam kev vam meej yuav tseem ua haujlwm nyob rau hauv qhov "ib txwm" ntau.
