Rau kev tsim khoom tsim khoomC12200 seamless rajrau huab cua- cua txias, tub yees, kav dej, lossis cua sov- kev pabcuam sib pauv, cov lus tau meej meej: cathode benchmark tau ruaj khov tom qab nws ntxov -Lub Cuaj Hli mus ncig, tab sis cov txheej txheem ntawm lub cev nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm nws tau txais kim dua. Nrog rau US refined -tooj liab tariff txiav txim los ntawm lub Cuaj Hli Ntuj 30, kaum hnub tom ntej no yog lub qhov rais uas Q4 mov chains tau kaw nyob rau hauv.
Qhov chaw: London Hlau Txauv cov nqi raug cai; bonded-warehouse premium cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm kev lees paub kev lag luam cov ntaub ntawv muab kev pabcuam.
Lub Limtiam hauv Tus lej
| Qhov taw qhia | Kev nyeem ntawv kawg | Hloov / ceeb toom |
|---|---|---|
| LME 3-hli tooj liab (September 19) | $14,515 / tonnes | +2.0% los ntawm Lub Cuaj Hli 14 kaw |
| Cov ntaub ntawv ua ntej intraday (September 10) | $14,875 / tonnes | Tsis tau rov kuaj dua |
| SHFE tooj liab 2610 (Sept 18 kaw) | 109,650 yuan / tonne | +1.06% |
| SHFE qis lub lim tiam no | 106,650 yuan / tonne | Dip- yuav tshwm sim |
| Yangshan tau cog lus rau -warehouse premium | $121 / tonnes | 4 xyoo siab |
| SHFE chaw #1 cathode hwm | 645 yuan / tonnes | 3 xyoo siab |
| Spot tooj liab-ntseeg TC | ~-$210 / dmt | Ze keeb kwm qis |
| Suav domestic social inventory | ~ 89,100 tons | +1,600 tonnes WoW, tseem qis |
| SHFE warehouse stocks | ~ 54,780 tons | Ze li ntau- xyoo qis |
| Teb Chaws Asmeskas tsoom fwv cov nyiaj phiaj xwm tus nqi | 3.75%–4.00% | +25bp; dot zaj lus qhia ntawm lwm +25bp hauv 2026 |
Lub cev txheej yog nruj dua li qhov ntsuas ntsuas
Daim duab saum toj no qhia ob yam uas txav mus ua ke, tab sis ib qho yog txav nrawm dua. Yangshan tau cog lus rau- cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj pib lub Cuaj Hli nyob ib puag ncig $ 78 toj ib tonne thiab kaw lub lim tiam ntawm $ 121 ib tonne, nce 55% hauv peb lub lis piam. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, LME 3-lub hlis tus nqi tooj liab tau nce kwv yees li 4% ntawm $ 13,960 txog $ 14,515. Tus nqi them yog qhia tias Suav lub cev xav tau nrawm dua piv rau qhov ntsuas.
Muaj ntau yam ua rau qhov no:
Ua ntej-National Day stockpiling.Suav tuam txhab lag luam feem ntau tsim cov khoom nyoos- cov khoom muag ua ntej lub Kaum Hlis 1 hnub so thiab Q4 xa tawm tom ntej. Hnub so yog tam sim no kaum hnub tam sim no, thiab cov raj mills yog qhov chaw rau lub Kaum Hli Ntuj tsis khoom.
SHFE cov khoom muag ntawm ntau- xyoo qis.SHFE tau sau npe cov khoom lag luam tooj liab tseem nyob ze 54,780 tonnes, uas yog ze rau qib qis tshaj txij li thaum ntxov 2024. Nrog rau cov khoom siv hauv tsev tsis tshua muaj, cov neeg yuav khoom tig mus rau cov khoom siv, nqa Yangshan hwm.
Concentrate mov tseem txwv.Tus nqi kho mob tau daig ze ntawm -$210 ib metric tonne qhuav. Smelters poob nyiaj ntawm txhua tonnes lawv tsim, thiab kev txiav tawm tau tshaj tawm los ntawm cov neeg tsim khoom kim dua -. Tsawg refined cathode ua ntej txhais tau hais tias nruj dua tube feedstock.
Ntshuam arbitrage qhib luv luv. Lub qhov rais ntshuam tau zoo rau ib ncig ntawm +600 yuan ib tonne tom qab LME poob, txhawb cov tub lag luam kom book cargoes. Tab sis qhov chaw nres nkoj congestion thiab shipping lub sij hawm txhais tau hais tias cov cargoes yuav tsis tuaj txog rau ob peb lub lis piam, ua rau cov chaw ua lag luam nruj nyob rau hauv lub meantime.
Yuav ua li cas C12200 Tube nqi yog stacked tam sim no
Txhua C12200 seamless tube invoice tuaj yeem decomposed rau hauv tib peb txheej, tab sis qhov loj ntawm txhua txheej tau hloov pauv ob lub lis piam dhau los.
| Nqe txheej | Qhov taw qhia theem rau C12200 ACR raj | Saib |
|---|---|---|
| LME Qib A cathode benchmark | $14,515 / tonnes | Txheej 1; volatile tab sis tawm ntawm lows |
| Yangshan / ntshuam hwm | $121 / tonnes | Siab tshaj hauv 4 xyoos; qhia txog Suav lub cev nruj |
| C12200 tube hloov pauv hwm | $1,400–$2,500/tonne | Nyob ntawm OD / phab ntsa / temper / ASTM tus qauv |
| Qhov taw qhia xa C12200 ACR raj nqi | $16,036–$17,136/tonne | Ua ntej freight, lub luag haujlwm, thiab kev tuav hauv zos |
Tus nqi pauv hloov pauv rau C12200 raj yog dav dua rau C11000 raj rau peb txheej txheem txheej txheem: lub ci-annealed sab hauv nto yuav tsum tau los ntawm ASTM B68, nitrogen purification thiab huv huv pov thawj, thiab hydrostatic thiab eddy-tam sim no kev sim uas yog tus qauv rau refrigerant kev pab es tsis xaiv.
Kev Xav Tau: Q4 ACR Ntau Lawm Yuav Tsum Tau Ua kom nrawm
C12200 seamless raj yog cov khoom siv rau cov tub yees kab, coil headers, thiab cua sov- cov twj tso kua mis. Nws qhov kawg loj tshaj plaws -siv channel yog thaj chaw thiab teeb pom kev zoo- huab cua ua lag luam- cua txias kev tsim khoom, uas tau hloov pauv los ntawm lub Cuaj Hlis ntau lawm rau hauv Q4 xa tawm thiab cov khoom muag- tsim lub voj voog.
Kev lag luam cov sij hawm tsim khoom rau lub Cuaj Hlis-Kaum Ib Hlis yog tam sim no taug qab kwv yees li -8%, +12%, thiab +17% xyoo-rau-xyoo. Lub viav vias los ntawm 8% kev cog lus mus rau 17% nthuav dav hauv peb lub hlis yog qhov txawv txav thiab yog ib qho tseem ceeb tshaj plaws xav tau teeb liab rau DHP tube buyers. Peb yam yog qab nws:
Cov khw muag khoom nyob sab Europe khaws cov khoom lag luam rov qab tom qab ncua sij hawm destocking ntawm 2024-2025.
Thaum tshav kub kub-tswj cov kev pab cuam nyob rau hauv ntau lub khw European thiab North American, uas siv tib C12200 tube tsev neeg raws li cov qauv AC.
Kev tsim kho raws caij nyoog rau lub caij nplooj ntoo hlav tom ntej lub caij txias, uas yuav tsum tau ua tiav cov chav nyob ntawm cov khw muag khoom hauv lub Plaub Hlis.
Rau cov tub yuav khoom, qhov no txhais tau tias tam sim no poob rau hauv LME tus nqi tau tshwm sim ntawm lub sijhawm tsis ncaj ncees lawm yuav tsum tau tos. Kev thov tab tom nce qib ib yam li cov khoom siv - sab kev txwv - mloog tsis txaus thiab smelter poob - yog txwv kom muaj cov cathode refined.
Lub Cuaj Hlis 30 Tariff Countdown: Peb Scenario
Qhov kev tshwm sim binary tom ntej no yog US kev txiav txim siab seb puas yuav txuas ntxiv Tshooj 232-style lub luag haujlwm rau refined tooj liab cathode. Txoj cai tam sim no twb npog ib nrab- cov khoom siv tooj liab tiav; cathode nws tus kheej kom deb li deb tau raug cais tawm. Cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm lub lim tiam no qhia tias cov thawj coj tseem tab tom ntsuas qhov kev txiav txim siab, nrog rau cov tub ceev xwm tsom mus rau ob qho tib si khoom siv tswv yim- cov hom phiaj saw thiab cov nqi tsim khoom nyob ze.
Scenario A: Cathode tseem tsis suav nrog lossis qhov kev txiav txim tau ncua.Tsis ntev los no unwind ntawm transatlantic arbitrage lag luam txuas ntxiv. COMEX-LME cov qauv zoo tshaj plaws nthuav dav ntxiv, thiab qee cov hlau uas tau hloov mus rau Asmeskas cov tsev khaws khoom tau ntws rov qab rau hauv European thiab Esxias kev lag luam. C12200 tube feedstock ua ntau muaj nyob sab nraum Teb Chaws Asmeskas, thiab cathode premiums soften modestly.
Scenario B: Ib lub luag haujlwm theem tau tshaj tawm.Ib qho qauv sib tham yog 15% lub luag haujlwm pib txij lub Ib Hlis 1, 2027, nce mus rau 30% ib xyoos tom qab. Qhov no yuav rov ua dua - ua kom muaj kev hloov pauv hloov pauv, rub cov cathode ntau dua rau hauv US warehouses, thiab nruj tsis yog - US cov khoom. C12200 tube nqi sab nraum Teb Chaws Asmeskas yuav nce nrawm dua li qhov ntsuas LME.
Scenario C: Lub luag haujlwm ntse, tam sim ntawd raug yuam.Qhov no yog qhov tsawg - qhov yuav tshwm sim tus Tsov tus tw tab sis qhov siab - cuam tshuam ib qho. Nws yuav ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv ntawm COMEX tooj liab tam sim ntawd, rov nyem dua hauv LME-txuas cov khoom sib txuas, thiab cov nqi them nqi tam sim ntawd. Tube buyers nrog rau US raug yuav tsum muaj tariff-nrog rau clauses nyob rau hauv lawv cov ntawv cog lus.
Kev Pom Zoo Rau Cov Neeg Yuav Khoom C12200 Tube
Npog lub kaum hli ntuj thiab lub Kaum Ib Hlis lub raj yuav tsum tam sim no.LME Txheej 1 tuaj yeem hloov pauv, tab sis tus nqi hloov pauv thiab lub sijhawm ua haujlwm rau C12200 ACR raj yog ob qho tib si nce mus rau Q4. Xauv tus nqi tam sim no tiv thaiv lub caij nyem.
Qhia meej ASTM B68 / B75 thiab xav tau MTC pov thawj.C12200 raj tsis hloov pauv nrog C11000 hauv cov tshuab hluav taws xob lossis cov tub yees. Daim ntawv pov thawj zeb xeem yuav tsum paub meej tias cov ntsiab lus phosphorus (0.015-0.040%), oxygen tsis siab dua 10 ppm, thiab cov qauv ASTM cuam tshuam rau kev txiav txim siab kub thiab qhov chaw tiav.
Ntxiv cov nqi tariff-kev hloov kho rau US- cov khoom xa tuaj.Nrog rau lub Cuaj Hlis 30 qhov kev txiav txim tseem tab tom tos, txhua yam ruaj khov - nqe lus cog lus xa mus rau North America yuav tsum suav nrog cov lus uas hloov kho rau lub luag haujlwm tshiab lossis keeb kwm - txoj cai hloov pauv.
Taug qab Yangshan tus nqi them raws li qhov tiag - ntsuas lub sijhawm xav tau.Thaum tus nqi them nce sai dua LME tooj liab, nws qhia tau tias Suav lub cev xav tau yog rub ua ntej ntawm cov khoom. Qhov ntawd yog lub sijhawm uas cov nqi them nqi raj nce ntxiv tom ntej.
Npaj ib ncig lub Kaum Hlis 1-7 hnub so.Suav mills thiab chaw nres nkoj yuav qeeb thaum lub sijhawm National Day so. Kev txiav txim tau lees paub ua ntej lub Cuaj Hlis 25 yog qhov muaj feem ntau yuav xa tuaj raws sijhawm ntau dua li cov lus txib muab tso rau lub lim tiam so.
C12200 Copper Tube Specifications
| Khoom | Standard qib | Qhov ntau thiab tsawg | Kub | Cov qauv tseem ceeb | Cov ntawv thov siv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C12200 ACR seamless raj | C12200 / DHP / TP2 / CW024A | OD 4.76–76.2 hli, phab ntsa 0.5–3.0 mm | O60, H55, H80 | ASTM B68, B75, B280; TS EN 12735-1 | AC refrigerant kab, coil headers, kub twj tso kua mis |
| C12200 dej / kav dej | C12200 / DHP / TP2 | OD 6-159 hli, phab ntsa 0.8-5.5 hli | O60, H55 | ASTM B88, EN 1057 | Cov dej haus, cua sov, kev kho mob roj |
| C12200 kub exchanger raj | C12200 / DHP / TP2 | OD 6-57 hli, phab ntsa 0.4-4.0 hli | O60, H55 | ASTM B111, B359, B543; TS EN 12451 | Condensers, evaporators, plhaub - thiab - tube units |
| C12200 pancake / coiled raj | C12200 / DHP / TP2 | OD 6.35-22.2 hli, coil lengths 3-50 m | O60 | ASTM B280, EN 12735-1 | Split AC installations, kev pabcuam tub yees |
Txhua lub raj xa nrog cov ntawv pov thawj zeb xeem lees paub UNS lub npe, tshuaj muaj pes tsawg leeg, cov khoom siv kho tshuab, thiab qhov ntev ntev. Tsis yog- qhov loj me, qhov siab ntev dua, thiab qhov tshwj xeeb nto tiav yog muaj nyob rau ntawm kev thov.
Thov ib tug C12200 Tube Quote
Xa koj cov specification, tus qauv, lub hom phiaj kom muaj nuj nqis, thiab lub qhov rais xa khoom. Peb yuav xa rov qab tus nqi uas qhia txog LME siv, ntshuam hwm, thiab tus nqi hloov dua siab tshiab nyias, nrog MTC kev pom zoo.
