Guangzhou Financial Holdings Futures: Kev thov tsis muaj zog tiv thaiv tus nqi tooj liab hauv lub sijhawm luv
Ntau lub tuam txhab mining thoob ntiaj teb yuav txo cov kev npaj tsim tawm hauv xyoo 2024
Hauv thawj 11 lub hlis ntawm 2023, kev tsim cov tooj liab ntau ntxiv hauv Chile, Panama, Peru thiab Congo offset poob qis hauv Suav teb, Indonesia thiab Tebchaws Meskas. Raws li ICSG cov ntaub ntawv, lub ntiaj teb tooj liab mine ntau lawm tau nce 1% hauv thawj 11 lub hlis ntawm 2023. Tshwj xeeb, Chile cov khoom lag luam poob los ntawm 1.5%, feem ntau vim tias qee qhov mines tau cuam tshuam tsis zoo los ntawm cov teeb meem kev ua haujlwm, qib qis thiab txo cov khoom siv dej los ntawm kev kub ntxhov. nyob rau hauv lub central cheeb tsam. Indonesian tooj liab mine ntau lawm poob 7.5% vim muaj kev txwv kev ua haujlwm ntawm Grasberg thiab Batu Hijau mines hauv thawj ib nrab xyoo 2023; Panama qhov kev loj hlob ntawm kev tsim khoom raug txwv rau 3.4% vim muaj kev cuam tshuam kev tsim khoom ib ntus ntawm Cobre Panama mine; Cov teeb meem ntsig txog huab cua thiab txoj siv conveyor Technical glitches txo cov zis ntawm Kennecott mine, nrog US ntau lawm poob 9%; Suav ntau lawm poob 8% vim muaj teeb meem ua haujlwm ntawm ob lub mines tseem ceeb, Jiama thiab Julong. Hauv Peru, txawm hais tias hauv zej zog kev nqis tes ua cuam tshuam cov txiaj ntsig ntawm qee qhov mines, nws cov khoom tsim tawm tau nce 14%. Qhov kev nce no feem ntau yog raws li kev tsim khoom ntxiv los ntawm Quellaveco, txuas ntxiv ntau lawm los ntawm MinaJusta, thiab cov zis tawm los ntawm Cuajone thiab Las Bambas tom qab kev ncua ib ntus. txhim kho. Congo ntau lawm tau nce 6%, feem ntau yog vim kev nthuav dav ntawm Kamoa mine thiab tshiab / nthuav dav ntawm lwm cov mines.
ICSG cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias nyob rau thawj 11 lub hlis ntawm 2023, lub ntiaj teb refined tooj liab ntau lawm nce li ntawm 5.5%, thawj refined tooj liab ntau lawm nce 5%, thiab recycled refined tooj liab ntau lawm nce los ntawm 7%. Kev nce hauv ntiaj teb kev ua kom zoo tshaj plaws yog vim muaj kev nthuav dav ntawm kev tsim khoom hauv Suav teb thiab Congo, uas ua rau 13% thiab 5% nce hauv cov khoom tsim tawm hauv ob lub teb chaws raws li, thaum cov khoom tsim tawm hauv lwm thaj tsam tau cuam tshuam los ntawm kev saib xyuas, xwm txheej. los yog cov teeb meem kev ua haujlwm, thiab cov khoom tsim tawm hauv lwm cheeb tsam tau txo qis los ntawm 1%. Refined tooj liab ntau lawm hauv Chile, Nyiv, Tebchaws Meskas, Is Nrias teb, Indonesia, Finland thiab Sweden poob los ntawm 2.7%, 2.8%, 10%, 5%, 24%, 14% thiab 52% raws li.
Xyoo 2024, Thawj Quantum, Anglo American, Freeport thiab Glencore tau txo qis lawv cov kev kwv yees ntau lawm, thaum Antofagasta, Rio Tinto thiab Tektronix yuav nce ntau lawm. Raws li lub koom haum cov ntaub ntawv, Thawj Quantum tau ua tiav kev tsim tooj liab txhua xyoo ntawm 708, 000 tons hauv 2023, ib xyoos ib zaug ntawm 9%. Ntawm lawv, Zambia cov zis yog 349, 000 tons, ib xyoos ib zaug poob ntawm 10%. Qhov no yog vim qhov ntau lawm poob thiab Kansanshi qib tsis kam. Cobre Panama tau ua tiav txhua xyoo tooj liab ntau lawm ntawm 331,{13}} tonnes ua ntej yuav tsum tsis ua haujlwm thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2023. Raws li Cobre tooj liab mine tsis ua haujlwm, Thawj Quantum cov khoom siv tooj liab xav tias yuav raug txiav ib nrab xyoo 2024. Yog li ntawd, Thawj Quantum's npaj tooj liab tso zis nyob rau hauv 2024, 2025 thiab 2026 yog 370, 000-420, 000 tons thiab 400, 000-460, 000 tons feem. Thiab 400, 000-460, 000 tons.
Yav dhau los, Anglo American tshaj tawm tias nws qhov kev npaj tsim tawm hauv 2024 yuav raug txo los ntawm thawj 910,000-1 lab tons rau 730,000-790,000 tons. Cov zis tooj liab ntawm Chilean mining loj heev Antofagasta yuav yog 660,600 tons hauv 2023, thiab lub tuam txhab npaj cov khoom tsim tawm hauv 2024 yog 670,{11}},000 tons. Tsoomfwv Chilean cia siab tias cov khoom siv tooj liab yuav ncav cuag 5.64 lab tons hauv 2024, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 5.7%. Freeport cov tooj liab ntau lawm hauv 2023 yog 1.91 lab tons, thiab cov kev coj ua hauv xyoo 2024 yog 1.86 lab tons. Tsoomfwv Indonesian tau pom zoo Freeport Indonesia cov tooj liab ore mining quota rau peb lub xyoos tom ntej, tag nrho txog 219.8 lab tons. Lub tuam txhab npaj yuav mine 63.16 lab tons ntawm tooj liab ore hauv 2024. Canadian mining tuam txhab Teck Resources cia siab tias tooj liab yuav nyob nruab nrab ntawm 465, 000 thiab 540,000 tons hauv 2024, nce los ntawm 296,500 tons hauv 2023 . Glencore tus kheej cov tooj liab ntau lawm rau 2023 yuav yog 1.0101 lab tons, ib xyoo-rau-xyoo txo ntawm 5%. Kev npaj cov tooj liab hauv xyoo 2024 yog 950, 000-1.01 lab tons. Vale tag nrho cov khoom siv tooj liab hauv xyoo 2023 yuav yog 326,600 tons, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 29.0%, thiab cov khoom tsim tawm hauv 2024 yuav tsum yog 320,000-355,000 tons. Chile's Paipote tooj liab smelter nrog lub peev xwm ntawm 300, 000 tons / xyoo yuav raug kaw hauv 2024. BHP cov khoom siv tooj liab hauv 2023 yuav yog 1.777 lab tons, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 6.6%. Lub hom phiaj ntawm cov zis tooj liab hauv 2024 yog 1.72 lab rau 1.91 lab tons. Rio Tinto cov tooj liab ntau lawm hauv 2023 yog 620, 000 tons, thiab cov phiaj xwm tooj liab tau npaj rau xyoo 2024 yog 660,000-720,000 tons.
CSPT hu rau kev txiav ntau lawm los tiv thaiv TC qhov poob qis
Hauv tsev, xyoo 2024, Zijin Mining thiab Shengtun Mining tau nce lawv cov kev xav tau ntawm cov tooj liab hauv tsev. Minmetals Resources kwv yees tias cov zis ntawm Las Bambas tooj liab hauv xyoo 2024 yuav yog 280,000-320,000 tons, thiab cov zis xyoo 2023 yuav yog 347,000 tons. Zijin Mining npaj yuav tsim 1.11 lab tons ntawm mined tooj liab hauv 2024, nce los ntawm 1.01 lab tons hauv 2023. Shengtun Mining cia siab tias yuav ua tiav cov tooj liab txhua xyoo ntawm kwv yees li 100,{15}} hlau tons thaum lub sijhawm tshaj tawm xyoo 2024, nce ntxiv. ntawm ntau dua 70% piv rau tag nrho cov tooj liab ntau lawm hauv 2023.
Cov khoom siv nruj ntawm cov tooj liab hauv tsev tau nce ntxiv thaum Lub Ob Hlis. Tuam Tshoj tus ntshuam ntawm tooj liab ore thiab tooj liab concentrate nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2023 yog 2.481 lab tons; Cov khoom lag luam ntshuam hauv xyoo 2023 yog 27.536 lab tons, nce xyoo ib xyoos ntawm 9.1%. Kev tshawb fawb hauv tsev qhia tau hais tias Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Tuam Tshoj tooj liab thiab Freeport tau ua tiav cov nqi ua haujlwm mus sij hawm ntev rau tooj liab concentrate hauv 2024 ntawm US $ 80 / ton thiab 8.0 xees / lb, uas yog qis dua tus nqi ua haujlwm mus sij hawm ntev. tooj liab concentrate nyob rau hauv 2023. Benchmark's yog 88 US dollars / ton thiab 8.8 xees / phaus. Tsis tas li ntawd, Antofagata thiab Jinchuan Group tau ua tiav cov nqi ua haujlwm mus sij hawm ntev rau tooj liab mloog zoo hauv 2024 ntawm US $ 80 / ton thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2023. Kev poob qis hauv cov nqi ua haujlwm tau pom zoo ntawm cov mines thoob ntiaj teb thiab Tuam Tshoj qhia tias muaj kev cia siab ntawm kev poob qis hauv ntiaj teb tooj liab. concentrate mov. Raws li lub Ob Hlis 9, 2024, Mysteel suav 452, 000 tons ntawm cov tooj liab tuaj txawv teb chaws ntawm xya qhov chaw nres nkoj hauv Suav teb rau lub lim tiam, qhov txo qis ntawm 151,{29}} tons ntawm 603,000 tons thaum kawg ntawm lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2023. Cov kev tshawb fawb tshawb fawb pom tau tias muaj ntau yam qauv huv ore kev sib tw ua lag luam nyob rau lub Ob Hlis, nrog rau cov nqi kev lag luam tseem ceeb ntawm qhov qis ntawm US $ 20 / ton, thiab lub sij hawm thauj khoom tau nce mus rau lub quarter thib ob. Ib tug tub luam muag 10,{35}} tons ntawm Las Bambas tooj liab mloog zoo rau lub smelter ntawm tus nqi qis rau nruab nrab ntawm kev ua haujlwm ntawm US $ 20/ton. Kev cuam tshuam los ntawm qhov no, cov khoom siv tooj liab hauv tsev TC poob rau qhov tsawg kawg nkaus ntawm US $ 23.6 / qhuav tuj nyob rau lub lim tiam ntawm Lub Ob Hlis 2, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab rau lub lim tiam yog US $ 28.5 / qhuav ton, nqis ze li 50% los ntawm US $ 56 / qhuav ton. thaum ntxov Lub Ib Hlis. Qhov no yog pov thawj los ntawm cov khoom siv nruj thiab kev thov ntawm cov mines. Yog li ntawd, CSPT pawg tswv cuab tau hu rau kev txiav cov khoom sib koom ua ke los daws qhov teeb meem ntawm kev poob tooj liab concentrate qhov chaw ua nqi. Thaum Lub Ob Hlis 20, TC rov qab los ntawm qhov qis ntawm lub xyoo mus rau US $ 31.5 / qhuav ton.
Kev poob qis hauv cov nqi ua haujlwm suppresses cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm cov tuam txhab refining hauv tsev
Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias nyob rau hauv 2023, Tuam Tshoj Kub Copper lub cathode tooj liab tso zis ua tiav 100.76% ntawm cov phiaj xwm txhua xyoo. Sab Hnub Tuaj Copper ua tau tag nrho ntawm 462,300 tons ntawm tooj liab cov khoom nyob rau hauv 2023. Nyob rau hauv 2023, Tongling Nonferrous Jinlong Copper lub cathode tooj liab tso zis yuav ncav cuag 103.41%. Tongling Nonferrous Zhangjiagang Co., Ltd. ua tau tag nrho ntawm 291,724 tons ntawm cathode tooj liab thoob plaws hauv lub xyoo, ntau tshaj li ntawm 11,724 tons, ua tiav 104% ntawm cov phiaj xwm txhua xyoo, thiab ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 6.3%. Baiyin Nonferrous Metals tau ua tiav nws lub hom phiaj tsim muaj peev xwm txhua xyoo ntawm 400, 000 tons ntawm cathode tooj liab hauv xyoo 2023, thiab nws cov mine-tsim blister tooj liab thiab cathode tooj liab tau nce 11% thiab 28% raws li xyoo dhau los. thoob plaws hauv lub xyoo. Tuam Tshoj Molybdenum npaj yuav tsim 520,{27}},000 tons ntawm tooj liab nyob rau hauv 2024, uas yog siab tshaj qhov tso zis ntawm 419,500 tons nyob rau hauv 2023. Nyob rau hauv 2024, Guixi Zhongan tooj liab npaj tsim ib qhov project nrog ib xyoos ib zaug. cov zis ntawm 100,{35}} tons ntawm anode tooj liab thiab 100,{37}} tons ntawm cov pas nrig tooj liab ua haujlwm siab.
Tuam Tshoj tus refined tooj liab (electrolytic tooj liab) tso zis nyob rau hauv lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2023 yog 1.169 lab tons, ib xyoo-rau-xyoo nce ntawm 16.6%; cov khoom tsim tawm los ntawm Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2023 yog 12.988 lab tons, nce xyoo ib xyoos ntawm 13.5%. Cov ntaub ntawv tshawb fawb hauv tsev qhia tau hais tias txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Ob Hlis 2024, Huludao Hongyue Northern Copper Co., Ltd. yuav raug kho rau 18 hnub, uas xav tias yuav muaj kev cuam tshuam me ntsis ntawm cov khoom tsim tawm. Vim qhov kev poob qis hauv cov nqi siv tooj liab hauv tsev hauv lub Ib Hlis, cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tuam txhab smelting tau ua tsis zoo. Nkag mus rau Lub Ob Hlis, nws kwv yees tias cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tuam txhab smelting tooj liab, tsis suav nrog cov txiaj ntsig ntawm sulfuric acid, hloov pauv ntawm -2,500 thiab 400 yuan ib tuj. Cov nyiaj tau los ntawm tooj liab smelting ib tuj ntawm tooj liab smelting tuam txhab, nrog rau cov nyiaj tau los ntawm sulfuric acid muag, hloov pauv ntawm -1,700 thiab 1,200 yuan. Vim tias cov txiaj ntsig tsis zoo ntawm cov tuam txhab ua kom zoo dua qub thiab cuam tshuam rau lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival hnub so, kev tsim cov tooj liab hauv tsev yuav tsum poob qis txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Ob Hlis.
Tuam Tshoj tus refined tooj liab ntshuam nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2023 yog 338,657.65 tons, ib tug txo ntawm 15.35% lub hli-rau-hli thiab ib xyoo-rau-xyoo txo ntawm 6.96%. Cov txiaj ntsig ntawm refined tooj liab ntshuam los ntawm Lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Ob Hlis yog qhov zoo. Thaum Lub Ob Hlis 20, cov txiaj ntsig ntawm kev xa tawm tooj liab tau zoo yog 584 yuan / ton. Yog li ntawd, nws cia siab tias cov tuam txhab tooj liab hauv teb chaws yuav nce kev xa tawm ntawm cov tooj liab refined los ntawm Lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Ob Hlis mus rau ib feem cuam tshuam qhov tsis zoo ntawm kev poob qis ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev.
Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv tooj liab xa tawm thaum lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2023 yog 200, 000 lub cev tons, nce 9.33% lub hli-rau-hli thiab 43.69% xyoo-rau-xyoo. Tag nrho ntawm 1.9866 lab tons ntawm seem tooj liab tau raug xa tawm los ntawm Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj mus rau Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2023. Qhov ntim ntawm cov khoom seem tooj liab hauv xyoo 2023 tau nce los ntawm 214,900 tons ntawm lub cev txhua xyoo, nce 12.13%.
