Cov zis ntawm kaum cov khoom siv hlau tsis yog hlau tau tshaj 70 lab tons thawj zaug
Thaum Lub Ib Hlis 30, Tuam Tshoj Nonferrous Metals Industry Association tau tuav lub rooj sib tham xov xwm ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam ntawm nonferrous hlau kev lag luam hauv 2023 ntawm video. Chen Xuesen, tus tswv cuab ntawm Pawg Neeg Sawv Cev Pawg Neeg Sawv Cev, Tus Lwm Thawj Coj thiab Tus Thawj Fwm Tsav Tebchaws ntawm Tuam Tshoj Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, tau tshaj tawm txog kev lag luam kev lag luam ntawm nonferrous hlau kev lag luam hauv 2023 thiab teb cov lus nug los ntawm cov neeg sau xov xwm thiab cov neeg sawv cev ua lag luam.
Chen Xuesen tau hais tias kev lag luam hlau tsis yog hlau yog qhia tau tias muaj kev ruaj khov thiab muaj txiaj ntsig zoo. Xyoo 2023, kev lag luam ntxiv tus nqi ntawm cov tuam txhab hlau tsis muaj hlau saum toj no yuav nce 7.4% xyoo dhau los, nce ntawm 2.2 feem pua cov ntsiab lus piv rau xyoo dhau los, thiab 2.8 feem pua cov ntsiab lus siab dua qhov nce hauv kev lag luam ntxiv tus nqi ntawm cov lag luam. saum toj no qhov loj me thoob teb chaws. Txij li thaum muaj kev sib kis, kev lag luam ntxiv tus nqi ntawm cov tuam txhab hlau nonferrous saum qhov loj me tau pom tias muaj kev rov zoo li qub, nrog kev loj hlob ntawm 2.1% hauv 2020, 3.1% hauv 2021, 5.2% hauv 2022, thiab 7.4% hauv 2023.
Xyoo 2023, cov yam ntxwv ua haujlwm ntawm kev lag luam hlau nonferrous yuav raug cuam tshuam tshwj xeeb hauv xya yam:
Ua ntej, cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm kaum cov khoom siv hlau tsis yog hlau tau tshaj 70 lab tons cim rau thawj zaug. Cov txheeb cais ua ntej qhia tau hais tias nyob rau hauv 2023, kuv lub teb chaws cov zis ntawm kaum feem ntau siv nonferrous hlau yog 74.698 lab tons, nce 7.1% nyob rau hauv lub xyoo dhau los (xws li nyob rau hauv kev sib piv, tib yam hauv qab no). Ntawm lawv, cov zis ntawm refined tooj liab yog 12.99 lab tons, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 13.5%; cov zis ntawm electrolytic txhuas yog 41.59 lab tons, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 3.7%; tus nqi ntawm rau cov concentrated hlau yog 6.415 lab tons, ib xyoos ib zaug txo ntawm 0.5%; alumina tso zis yog 82.44 lab tons, nce xyoo-rau-xyoo. 1.4% yog '; tooj liab ntau lawm (ua ntej txiav tawm txog 1.7 lab tons ntawm duplicate txheeb cais ntawm kev lag luam) yog 22.17 lab tons, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 5%; aluminium ntau lawm (ua ntej txiav tawm txog 14 lab tons ntawm duplicate txheeb cais ntawm cov lag luam) yog 63.034 lab tons, nce los ntawm xyoo dhau los Qhov poob ntawm 1.4% hloov mus rau qhov nce ntawm 5.7%. Nyob rau hauv 2023, lub peev xwm siv tus nqi ntawm cov nonferrous hlau smelting thiab dov kev lag luam yog 79.5%, nce ntawm 0.2 feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus ntawm lub xyoo dhau los thiab 4.2 feem pua cov ntsiab lus siab dua lub teb chaws muaj peev xwm siv tau tus nqi.
Qhov thib ob, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov cuab yeej cuab tam ruaj khov tau ntaus cov ntaub ntawv siab hauv kaum xyoo dhau los. Xyoo 2023, cov cuab yeej cuab tam ruaj khov ua tiav los ntawm kev lag luam hlau tsis muaj hlau yuav nce 17.3% xyoo dhau los, 2.8 feem pua cov ntsiab lus nrawm dua li xyoo dhau los, thiab 8.3 feem pua cov ntsiab lus siab dua lub teb chaws cov khoom lag luam ruaj khov kev loj hlob; cov nonferrous hlau mine mining thiab ua tiav cov khoom vaj khoom tsev ruaj khov loj hlob 42.7%; Kev nqis peev ruaj khov ua tiav hauv smelting, dov thiab ua tiav tau nce 12.5%. Kev nqis peev hauv cov khoom siv hlau tsis muaj hlau uas yuav tsum tau muaj rau photovoltaics, cua zog, lub zog thiab lub zog cia roj teeb, lub zog tshiab tsheb, thiab lwm yam thiab kev nqis peev hauv cov hlau tsis muaj hlau tau nce ntau, uas yog ib qho tseem ceeb ua rau kev loj hlob ruaj khov. cov cuab yeej cuab tam peev hauv kev lag luam tsis-ferrous hlau. Txij li thaum muaj kev sib kis, kev loj hlob ntawm cov cuab yeej cuab tam ruaj khov hauv kev lag luam hlau tsis muaj hlau tau nce xyoo los ntawm xyoo. Ntawm lawv, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm 2020 yog -1%, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm 2021 yog 4.1%, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm 2022 yog 14.5%, thiab kev loj hlob ntawm 2023 yog 17.3%, uas yog cov ntaub ntawv nyob rau hauv kaum xyoo dhau los. tshiab siab.
Thib peb, kev ntshuam ntawm cov hlau tsis-ferrous hlau mining raw cov ntaub ntawv tau nce, thiab qhov poob ntawm aluminium exports nqaim. Hauv 2023, kuv lub teb chaws cov hlau tsis muaj hlau ntshuam thiab xa tawm tag nrho yog US $ 331.54 billion, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 1.5%. Ntawm lawv, tus nqi ntshuam yog US $ 271.94 billion, nce 4.3%; Tus nqi xa tawm yog US $ 59.61 billion, txo qis ntawm 9.8%. Nyob rau hauv 2023, lub cev ntshuam ntawm tooj liab concentrate yog 27.536 lab tons, nce 2.303 lab tons los yog 9.1% xyoo dhau los; ntshuam ntim ntawm cov tooj liab thiab cov khoom siv tooj liab yog 5.48 lab tons, poob ntawm 360, 000 tons lossis 6.2% xyoo dhau los; Lub cev ntshuam ntawm bauxite yog 141.38 lab tons, nce 16.15 lab tons lossis 12.9% xyoo dhau los; cov khoom ntim ntawm cov khoom siv tsis muaj txhuas thiab txhuas yog 5.675 lab tons, qhov txo qis ntawm 919, 000 tons lossis 13.9% xyoo dhau los, tab sis qhov poob qis yog nyob rau thawj peb lub hlis twg, nws nqaim los ntawm 1.5 feem pua cov ntsiab lus thiab 6.1 feem pua cov ntsiab lus ntawm thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo; Lub ntiaj teb tsis tshua muaj export ntim yog 52,306.5 tons, nce 3,578.7 tons lossis 7.3% xyoo dhau los.
Plaub, tus nqi sib txawv ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj hlau. Tshwj xeeb, ua ntej, tus nqi hloov pauv ntawm feem ntau siv cov hlau tsis muaj hlau yog tsawg dua li cov hlau tshiab zog. Ntawm lawv, tus nqi tooj liab tau nce me ntsis piv nrog rau xyoo dhau los; aluminium nqi txuas ntxiv nqaim; industrial silicon cov nqi poob, tab sis pom cov cim ntawm kev nres thaum xaus ntawm lub xyoo; roj teeb-qib lithium carbonate tus nqi poob qis heev. Qhov thib ob, tus nqi ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj hlau loj hauv kev lag luam hauv tsev muaj zog dua li cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb. Hauv 2023, qhov nruab nrab ntawm peb lub hlis tooj tooj ntawm SHFE tau nce 1.8% piv nrog rau xyoo dhau los, thaum qhov nruab nrab peb lub hlis tooj tooj ntawm LME poob los ntawm 3.2% piv rau xyoo dhau los; qhov nruab nrab peb lub hlis txhuas tus nqi ntawm SHFE poob qis dua qhov nruab nrab peb lub hlis txhuas tus nqi ntawm LME. Qhov poob qis yog 6.8 feem pua cov ntsiab lus qis dua. Thib peb, cov nqi ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj hlau loj yog qhov zoo dua li cov nqi yav tom ntej. Xyoo 2023, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm cov khoom siv tooj liab hauv tsev yuav yog 1,051 yuan / ton siab dua li tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm peb lub hlis tooj liab ntawm kev sib pauv yav dhau los, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev yuav yog 238 yuan / ton siab dua tus nqi nruab nrab. ntawm peb lub hlis txhuas ntawm kev sib pauv dhau los.
Thib tsib, cov tuam txhab uas tsis yog-ferrous hlau saum toj no qhov loj me pom tau tias cov txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev poob mus rau nce. Nyob rau hauv 2023, cov tuam txhab uas tsis yog hlau tsis muaj hlau ua lag luam siab tshaj qhov loj me tau ua tiav tag nrho cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 371.61 billion yuan, nce 23.2% xyoo dhau los. Ntawm cov txiaj ntsig txhua xyoo, cov tuam txhab lag luam mining tau paub txog cov txiaj ntsig ntawm 78.57 billion yuan, nce ntawm 8.1%; smelting tuam txhab uas muag pom tau hais tias profits ntawm 186.9 billion yuan, nce 23.1%; Cov tuam txhab ua lag luam pom cov txiaj ntsig ntawm 106.15 billion yuan, nce ntawm 37.6%. Tus nqi siv rau ib 100 yuan ntawm kev khiav hauj lwm cov nyiaj tau los yog 94.64 yuan, ib tug txo ntawm 0.31 yuan los ntawm lub xyoo dhau los.
Thib rau, photovoltaics, cua zog, lub zog tshiab tsheb, lub zog thiab lub zog cia roj teeb tau dhau los ua qhov chaw tseem ceeb rau kev loj hlob ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj hlau. Xyoo 2023, kuv lub teb chaws cov khoom siv hluav taws xob photovoltaics, cua fais fab, tsheb tshiab, lub zog thiab lub zog cia roj teeb, lub zog tshiab hauv tsev tsim muaj peev xwm, thiab kev xa tawm ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv cov teb saum toj no yuav nce ntxiv, dhau los ua cov cheeb tsam tseem ceeb tsav kev loj hlob ntawm kev noj. ntawm nonferrous hlau xws li tooj liab, aluminium, thiab zinc. . Raws li kev kwv yees, xyoo 2023, cov kev lag luam uas tau hais los saum toj no yuav siv kwv yees li 3 lab tons ntawm tooj liab, nce 52% xyoo dhau los, suav txog kwv yees li 19% ntawm kev siv tooj liab hauv lub tebchaws; cov kev lag luam uas tau hais los saum toj no yuav siv kwv yees li 9 lab tons ntawm txhuas, nce ntawm 50% xyoo dhau los, suav txog kwv yees li 19% ntawm kev siv tooj liab hauv lub tebchaws. Kev faib ua feem ntawm lub teb chaws aluminium noj yog li 20%; galvanized noj ntawm cua zog yees, bolts thiab lwm yam steel qauv khoom thiab photovoltaic steel brackets yog hais txog 700,{12}} tons, nce 51% tshaj xyoo dhau los, suav txog li 9% ntawm lub teb chaws zinc noj.
Lub Xya Hli, Zijin Mining Group cov khoom siv tooj liab tau tshaj li ib lab tons thawj zaug. Nyob rau hauv xyoo tsis ntev los no, domestic nonferrous hlau lag luam tau ua tau zoo kawg li kev ua tau zoo ntawm kev tsim peev txheej hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws. Tus nqi thiab tso zis ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj hlau loj xws li tooj liab, txhuas, npib tsib xee, cobalt, thiab lithium hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws tau nce ntau. Ntawm ntau lub tuam txhab hauv tsev, Zijin Mining Group tau ua tiav cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm 1.01 lab tons ntawm tooj liab thawj zaug hauv 2023. Nws yog tib lub tuam txhab hauv Suav teb uas nws cov khoom siv tooj liab tau tshaj li ib lab tons. Nws nyob rau ntawm tsib saum toj kawg nkaus hauv ntiaj teb thiab tau nkag mus rau thawj square ntawm cov tuam txhab mining thoob ntiaj teb. , tau ua tiav cov keeb kwm kev ua tiav rau Suav tsis-ferrous hlau mining lag luam hauv kev sib tw thoob ntiaj teb, thiab ua tiav cov hom phiaj kev txhim kho uas tsis yog-ferrous hlau kev lag luam npau suav ntawm.
Chen Xuesen tau hais tias raws li kev lag luam hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws macroeconomic ib puag ncig, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov yam ntxwv ntawm kev lag luam hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws nonferrous hlau industries, ua ke nrog "Trinity" kev vam meej Performance index qhia tawm los ntawm Tuam Tshoj Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, nyob rau hauv lub premise tias tsis muaj " dub swan" tshwm sim, kev kwv yees rau 2024 Lub ntsiab lus qhia ntawm kev lag luam hlau tsis-ferrous yog kwv yees li hauv qab no:
Xyoo 2024, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm tus nqi ntxiv ntawm kev lag luam hlau nonferrous yuav nyob siab dua 5.5% thiab xav tias yuav ncav cuag 6%; cov zis loj hlob ntawm kaum feem ntau siv nonferrous hlau xam raws li tus tshiab caliber yuav nyob twj ywm ntawm ib ncig ntawm 5%; kev noj cov hlau tsis muaj hlau hauv vaj tse yuav tsum tau ua kom qeeb Txawm li cas los xij, photovoltaics, cua zog, lub zog thiab lub zog cia roj teeb, lub zog tshiab tsheb thiab kev thauj mus los hnyav tseem yog cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb ntawm kev noj cov hlau tsis muaj hlau; qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov cuab yeej cuab tam ruaj khov hauv kev lag luam hlau tsis yog hlau tseem nyob ib puag ncig 10%; kuv lub teb chaws cov khoom xa tawm txhuas Volume yuav tsum ua kom ruaj khov, thiab kev xa tawm ntawm tooj liab mloog zoo thiab bauxite yuav tswj kev loj hlob tsis tu ncua; non-ferrous hlau nqi nyob rau hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg yog feem ntau volatile ntawm tus nqi tam sim no, thiab tooj liab thiab txhuas hlau nqi yuav rebound me ntsis nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo. Muaj silicon, lithium carbonate, thiab lwm yam. Cov nqi yuav tsum tau hloov pauv hauv qhov tsim nyog.
