Lub caij noj zaub mov siab tshaj yog los txog, thiab cov hlau tsis muaj hlau tuaj yeem cia siab tias yuav nce lub zog
Ua ntej thiab tom qab lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival hnub so, tag nrho cov nqi hloov pauv ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj hlau nyob hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws kuj muaj zog, nrog cov nqi tooj liab thiab npib tsib xee yog qhov muaj zog tshaj plaws. Electrolytic aluminium thiab alumina nqi stabilized thiab rebounded tom qab poob. Hauv lub sijhawm luv luv, tsis muaj qhov tsis txaus ntseeg loj ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj hlau, tab sis feem ntau cov khoom muag qis, kev cia siab ntawm kev txhim kho macroeconomic, thiab lub caij nplooj zeeg ntawm US duas pauv tus nqi thiab cov paj laum tau txhawb nqa cov hlau tsis muaj hlau. tus nqi, offsetting qhov tsis zoo los ntawm lub caij nyoog noj off-season nyob rau hauv Lub ob hlis ntuj. .
Saib rau pem hauv ntej rau kev ua lag luam, feem ntau cov hlau uas tsis yog hlau yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm lub caij nyoog noj cov khoom siv lub caij nyoog uas tau coj los ntawm kev rov ua dua ntawm cov kev lag luam hauv qab, thiab cov kev cai nyiaj txiag yuav tsum muaj txiaj ntsig zoo, xws li vaj tse pheej yig, "ob qho tib si lom zem thiab xwm txheej ceev". pej xeem infrastructure thiab lub zos renovation. Nyob rau hauv kev tsim kho ntawm "peb qhov project loj". Xyoo 2024, kev siv kev loj hlob uas tau tsav los ntawm lub zog tshiab yuav qeeb, thiab vaj tse tseem nyob hauv lub xeev tsis muaj zog. Fed qhov kev txiav nyiaj paj laum yuav tsis tshwm sim kom txog thaum kawg ntawm lub quarter thib ob, thiab nws yuav siv sij hawm rau tus nqi qis dua los tsav cov neeg siv khoom thiab kev xav tau peev. Non-ferrous hlau nqi yuav nce, tab sis qhov tseem yuav pom.
Kev thov yuav rov zoo dua raws caij nyoog
Xyoo 2023, qhov kev thov rau cov hlau tsis yog hlau tseem tab tom loj hlob tag nrho, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog Tuam Tshoj qhov kev thov, uas tau dhau qhov kev cia siab vim yog kev cai hauv tsev thiab kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam tshiab zog. Qhov no kuj yog qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev thim rov qab ntawm qhov poob ntawm cov nqi ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj hlau nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm xyoo tas los. Lub ntsiab yog vim li cas rau qhov nce.
Hais txog tooj liab, cov ntaub ntawv tso tawm los ntawm ICSG qhia tau hais tias kev loj hlob ntawm kev siv tooj liab thoob ntiaj teb hauv 2023 yuav nce 4.6 feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus piv nrog 2022, nce mus txog 27.013 lab tons, thiab kev loj hlob ntawm 2022 yuav yog 2.5%. Raws li kev kwv yees, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev siv tooj liab hauv 2023 yuav yog 16.1 lab tons, nce ntawm 9.8% piv nrog 2022. Kev lag luam hluav taws xob tshiab yuav ua rau muaj kev loj hlob tseem ceeb hauv kev thov tooj liab, nce 52% piv nrog 2022, suav txog li 19%. ntawm lub teb chaws tooj liab noj. Txawv teb chaws refined tooj liab noj yuav pom kev loj hlob tsis zoo nyob rau hauv 2023, down 2.3% los ntawm 2022. Los ntawm Lub ib hlis ntuj mus rau Lub ob hlis ntuj 2024, downstream thov rau tooj liab tsis muaj zog dua, thiab cov kev khiav hauj lwm tus nqi ntawm kev lag luam xws li tooj liab rods, tooj liab raj thiab tooj liab strips feem ntau tsis kam, thiab cia siab tias yuav rov qab los rau lub Peb Hlis.
Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm txhuas thiab alumina, nyob rau hauv 2023, Tuam Tshoj yuav import 1.542 lab tons ntawm electrolytic txhuas, nce 131.4% piv nrog rau 2022. Qhov kev loj hlob ntawm tus nqi yog poob qis ib hlis ib hlis thiab zoo ib yam li xyoo 2021, feem ntau yog vim qhov ceev ceev. kev loj hlob ntawm domestic aluminium noj. Kev siv tag nrho cov khoom siv txhuas hauv tsev yuav ncav cuag 47.86 lab tons hauv 2023, cov ntaub ntawv siab, nce 7.6% tshaj 2022. Kev siv kev loj hlob feem ntau yog tshwm sim los ntawm kev siv tsheb tshiab, photovoltaics thiab lithium roj teeb. Xyoo 2023, kwv yees li 5.7 lab tons ntawm txhuas yuav raug siv, nce 50% piv nrog rau xyoo 2022. Ntawm lawv, aluminium thov rau lub zog tshiab neeg caij tsheb yuav yog 2.3 lab tons, thiab photovoltaic noj ntawm txhuas yuav yog 2.3 lab tons. 4 lab tons, roj teeb txhuas ntawv ci siv 400,{25}} tons ntawm txhuas. Txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Ob Hlis 2024, kev siv txhuas kuj tseem tsis muaj zog, ua rau lub lag luam electrolytic aluminium overstocked. Thaum Lub Peb Hlis, kev tsim khoom lag luam yuav ntxiv nws cov khoom muag. Alumina thov kuj tseem tsis muaj zog vim qhov rov pib dua ntawm electrolytic aluminium ntau lawm hauv Yunnan thaum Lub Ib Hlis yog tsawg dua li qhov xav tau.
Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm nickel, stainless hlau ntau lawm txuas ntxiv poob rau lub Ib Hlis. Vim tias cov khoom siv raw ntawm stainless hlau los ntawm ferronickel, nws muaj kev cuam tshuam me ntsis rau kev noj cov nickel ntshiab. Thaum Lub Ib Hlis, cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm ternary tau nce 44% xyoo-rau-xyoo thiab 7.7% piv nrog rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis xyoo tas los, tsav kev thov rau nickel sulfate tuaj tos. Nyob rau lub Peb Hlis, kev tsim khoom lag luam yuav ntxiv nws cov khoom muag, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog kev yuav cov roj teeb ternary rau lub zog tshiab, uas tseem yuav pom kev loj hlob raws caij nyoog.
Muaj kev txwv rau kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom siv
Saib rov qab rau xyoo 2023, cov khoom lag luam hlau tsis yog hlau txuas ntxiv poob qis. Nws tsis yog qhov kev thov loj hlob xwb, tab sis ntau qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom lag luam tau qeeb, ua rau muaj qhov sib npaug nruj ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau lossis tsuas yog me me dhau. Raws li lub ntiaj teb tam sim no kev hloov pauv hluav taws xob, kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig qis thiab lwm yam kev cai, kev nthuav dav ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj hlau tsim tau raug txwv, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog electrolytic aluminium thiab alumina. Tooj liab tej zaum yuav cuam tshuam los ntawm cov qib tooj liab poob qis, kev siv nyiaj qis dua thiab tsis muaj kev nom kev tswv.
Hais txog tooj liab, cov ntaub ntawv tso tawm los ntawm ICSG qhia tau hais tias lub ntiaj teb refined tooj liab ntau lawm yuav nce 6% nyob rau hauv 2023 piv nrog rau 2022, mus txog 26.927 lab tons. Ntawm lawv, Tuam Tshoj tus tooj liab refining tso zis yog kwv yees li 11.6 lab tons, nce 12.7% piv nrog rau xyoo 2022. Txawm li cas los xij, lub ntiaj teb tooj liab mine ntau lawm tsuas yog nce los ntawm 1.4% mus rau 22.2 lab tons hauv 2023. Nrog rau kev loj hlob ntawm tooj liab mine hauv Chile, Indonesia. , Panama thiab Tebchaws Meskas tau tsawg dua li qhov xav tau lossis tsis kam lees. Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, Chilean tooj liab ntau lawm tau poob vim muaj tej yam xws li poob ore zoo, kev txwv dej thiab kev sib kis. Raws li cov nqi siv tooj liab ua cov nqi txuas ntxiv poob rau xyoo 2024, tooj liab smelting profits tseem poob qis, uas tej zaum yuav cuam tshuam rau refined tooj liab ntau lawm hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg. Kev loj hlob yav tom ntej ntawm electrolytic tooj liab nyob ntawm seb qhov khoom ntawm cov khoom siv tooj liab puas tuaj yeem khaws cia.
Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm txhuas, nyob rau hauv 2023, kev loj hlob tus nqi ntawm electrolytic aluminium ntau lawm nyob rau hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws yuav qeeb. Xyoo 2023, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv hluav taws xob electrolytic aluminium yuav yog kwv yees li 41.594 lab tons, nce 3.7% los ntawm 2022, thiab qhov kev loj hlob yog qis tshaj plaws hauv plaub lub xyoos dhau los. Hauv 2023, lub ntiaj teb electrolytic aluminium ntau lawm yuav yog kwv yees li 70.581 lab tons, nce ntawm 2.2% los ntawm 2022. Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm kev tsim muaj peev xwm nthuav dav, Ministry of Industry thiab Information Technology's "qab nthab" txwv ntawm 45 lab tons ntawm electrolytic aluminium ntau lawm muaj peev xwm. ua rau nws nyuaj rau nthuav dav aluminium ntau lawm. Txawv teb chaws, yuav luag tsis muaj kev nthuav dav ntawm electrolytic aluminium ntau lawm hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab Tebchaws Meskas vim yog vim li cas kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig.
Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm alumina, nyob rau hauv 2023, Tuam Tshoj lub alumina ntau lawm yuav yog kwv yees li ntawm 82.4412 lab tons, nce 1.4% piv nrog rau 2022, thiab kev loj hlob tus nqi yuav qeeb heev los ntawm 5.6% nyob rau hauv 2022. Nyob rau hauv 2023, kuv lub teb chaws lub electrolytic aluminium ntau lawm yuav. yog 41,594 lab tons. Raws li kev noj ntawm 1.92 tons ntawm alumina ib tuj ntawm electrolytic aluminium ntau lawm, kuv lub teb chaws metallurgical qib alumina noj yuav yog 79.86 lab tons. Yog li ntawd, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv alumina tuaj yeem ua tau raws li kev siv hauv tsev ntawm electrolytic aluminium. Txawm li cas los xij, kev tawm tsam hauv Guinea ib zaug ua rau kev lag luam poob siab. Guinea cov koom haum ua lag luam tau xa tsab ntawv ceeb toom rau kev tawm tsam tsis muaj kev txwv thoob plaws tebchaws txij lub Ob Hlis 26.
Muaj qhov tsis paub meej txog qhov muaj peev xwm upside
Tebchaws Asmeskas xav kom nplua rau Russia, thiab kev ua lag luam txhawj xeeb txog kev xa khoom ntawm Rusal. Los ntawm kev xav ntawm lub ntiaj teb no kev ua lag luam, txawm hais tias Russia lub txhuas muaj peev xwm tau mus txog 4 lab tons thiab alumina muaj peev xwm tau mus txog 9.5 lab tons, Tuam Tshoj yog lub ntiaj teb no tus loj tshaj plaws manufacturers ntawm electrolytic txhuas. Tuam Tshoj txoj kev xa khoom ntawm electrolytic aluminium los ntawm Russia yog tsawg heev, tsuas yog 100 xyoo 2023. Txog 10,000 tons. Lavxias teb sab electrolytic aluminium yog tsuas yog xa tawm mus rau Tebchaws Europe, tab sis muaj tsawg thov rau electrolytic txhuas nyob rau hauv cov teb chaws Europe, uas tuaj yeem tuaj ntawm Tuam Tshoj, Australia thiab Tebchaws Meskas. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm alumina, Lavxias teb sab alumina exports yog heev me me thiab yeej siv tau raws li lub teb chaws cov electrolytic txhuas muaj peev xwm. Lavxias teb sab alumina tuaj yeem ua tau raws li nws lub teb chaws electrolytic aluminium ntau lawm muaj peev xwm kwv yees li 4.9 lab tons.
Raws li qhov tshwm sim, Lub Peb Hlis txog Lub Tsib Hlis txhua xyoo yog lub caij nyoog siab tshaj plaws rau kev tsim khoom lag luam nce ntxiv. Nonferrous hlau, raws li cov khoom tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam raw khoom, yuav ua rau kev xav tau ntawm lub caij nyoog. Tsis tas li ntawd, cov cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag thiab nyiaj txiag maj mam pib siv rau thawj peb lub hlis twg, thiab kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse thiab kev pib lossis kev tsim kho ntawm "peb txoj haujlwm loj" hauv lub quarter thib ob muaj qee yam kev txhawb nqa rau kev siv cov hlau tsis muaj hlau. Muaj kev txwv ntawm kev muab khoom, uas txhais tau hais tias yuav muaj kev lag luam destocking hauv lub Peb Hlis. Txawm li cas los xij, vim yog kev lag luam tus qauv kev txhim kho, lub hauv paus siab thiab cov tswv tsheb siab, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm photovoltaics thiab lub zog tshiab tsheb yuav ua rau qeeb qeeb, uas txhais tau hais tias muaj qhov tsis paub tseeb hauv chav rau kev siv-tsav uas tsis yog-ferrous hlau loj hlob.
