Market Pulse - Lub Limtiam Lub Cuaj Hli 8–12
Lub rooj yog txhob txwm nqaim lub lim tiam no. Tsuas yog kaum qib tseem ceeb rau qhov kev txiav txim siab Q4, thiab kab kawg yog ib qho uas nqa cov ntaub ntawv: qhov twg txhua tus nqi tam sim no zaum txheeb ze rau hauv pem teb hauv qab nws.
| Khoom | Qib kawg | Lub lis piam | Txoj hauj lwm |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daim txhuam cev Ti 0# (ex-ua haujlwm Tuam Tshoj) | ¥44,000–45,000/t | Pav ca | Hauv 2026 pem teb |
| Sponge Ti 1# | ¥43,000–44,000/t | Pav ca | Hauv pem teb |
| Sponge Ti 2# | ¥42,000–43,000/t | Pav ca | Sab hauv breakeven band |
| Daim txhuam cev Ti 0# (FOB Tuam Tshoj) | $6,800/t | Pav ca | Export hwm zoo li qub |
| Titanium tetrachloride (TiCl4) | ¥5,900–6,100/t | ↑ ~0.7% | Tus nqi pem teb nce |
| TC4 alloy ingot (Ti-6Al-4V) | ¥64,000–66,000/t | Pav ca | Kev ua lag luam cais |
| Civil zeb khoom (phaj / raj / bar) | ¥64–110/kg | Pav ca | Sib tham tau |
| TC4 alloy bar | ¥120–125/kg | Pav ca | ruaj |
| Titanium dioxide (rutile 93%) | ¥12,500–14,800/t | Tsawg- kho qhov kawg | Kev xav tig |
| Mill khoom: Europe | $13.76–15.20/kg | Tsis hloov | Tus nqi tsim nyog |
| Mill cov khoom: North America | $6.17–6.81/kg | Tsis hloov | Tight muaj |
| Mill khoom: Northeast Asia | $6.93–7.65/kg | Tsis hloov | Kev xav tau ruaj khov |
Muab tso ua ke los ntawm cov ntawv tshaj tawm txhua lub limtiam kev sojntsuam txog lub Cuaj Hlis 8–12, 2026. CNY qib ntsuas ex- ua haujlwm Suav.
Lub Margin Math: Ntau chav nyob hauv qab ¥ 44,500
Kev ua lag luam tam sim no piv rau cov qauv tsim cov nyiaj ntsuab breakeven thiab cov qib siv ua ntej. Breakeven band muab tau los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv tawm tswv yim (titanium tetrachloride, magnesium, muaj zog, slag) rau kev ua haujlwm kom txo tau txoj kab; qhia raws li qhov ntau, tsis yog qhov kwv yees kwv yees.
Daim duab saum toj no yog ib daim duab tseem ceeb tshaj plaws ntawm lub lim tiam no, thiab nws tsim nyog nyeem kom zoo. Kev ua lag luam twb tau mus deb heev: Qib-0 daim txhuam cev qhib 2026 ze ¥ 50,000 / tuj thiab tam sim no zaum ntawm ¥ 44, 500 - kwv yees li ¥ 5,500, lossis 11%, ntawm tus nqi tshem tawm hauv yim lub hlis. Tab sis hauv qab ntawm kev ua lag luam tam sim no tseem tshuav tsawg heev. Ua qauv los ntawm cov nqi tawm tswv yim, cov nyiaj ntsuab breakeven rau kev ua haujlwm kom txo tau txoj kab nyob hauv ib pawg ntawm kwv yees¥42,000–43,000/ton. Qhov ntawd tsuas yog ¥1,500–2,500 ntawm lub taub hau - peb mus rau tsib feem pua - nyob nruab nrab ntawm qhov chaw ua lag luam niaj hnub no thiab qhov chaw tsim khoom tsis ua haujlwm.
Thiab tus nqi sab yog drifting, tsis down. Titanium tetrachloride, qhov kev hloov pauv loj tshaj plaws hauv daim txhuam cev txo qis, ruaj khov rau ¥ 5,900-6,100 / tuj nrog cov neeg muag khoom tuav cov khoom nruj. Magnesium tseem nyob ze rau qhov siab tsis ntev los no ntawm lub zog- kev them nyiaj yug. Kev lag luam fais fab tariffs nyob rau hauv cov cheeb tsam tsim khoom tseem ceeb tsis tau eased. Slag smelters tab tom khiav tus nqi txo vim tias tam sim no tus nqi hloov pauv lawv tus kheej tus nqi qauv. Txhua tus ntawm cov kab no txav lub breakeven band tuaj. Tos rau lwm tsib feem pua ntawm pej xeem- qib sponge yog li ntawd tsis yog kev lag luam hu ib qho ntxiv - nws yog thawj koom ruam tawm tsam cov neeg tsim khoom muaj sia nyob, thiab cov neeg tsim khoom teb cov thawj koom ruam los ntawm kev txiav tawm ntau dua li kev txo nqi. Cov lus teb ntawd yog qhov tseeb ntawm lub tshuab uas tau xaus txhua qhov kev poob qis dhau los.
Nyeem nws li asymmetry, tsis yog kev kwv yees.Downside los ntawm ¥ 44,500 yog capped los ntawm tus nqi pem teb tsuas yog ob peb feem pua ntawm thiab nce. Upside yog uncapped thaum tsis muaj peev xwm nyob twj ywm offline thiab restocking pib. Cov neeg yuav khoom uas tus qauv tsuas yog downside yog tus nqi lag luam uas tsis muaj lawm.
Daim Ntawv Qhia Q4 Qhov rai: Tib Lub Lag Luam, Tsib Hnub Kawg
Ib lub ntsiab lus tiaj tus zais tsib lub qhov rais sib txawv. Daim duab qhia hauv qab no qhia txog kev cog lus qhov rais los ntawm cov khoom lag luam - thiab vim li cas lawv txawv yog tias txhua pawg raug txwv los ntawm cov peev txheej tsawg sib txawv.
Pom zoo kev cog lus cog lus qhov rais los ntawm cov khoom qeb, Cuaj hlis 2026 rau pem hauv ntej. Bars qhia lub sij hawm uas cov neeg yuav khoom tuav kev sib tham leverage; windows tau tsav los ntawm cov peev txheej tsis tshua muaj npe tawm tsam txhua pawg.
Pej xeem daim txhuam cev thiab ntshiab ingot - qhov rais kaw thaum lub Kaum Hli Ntuj. Qhov no yog tib qeb uas qhov kev txwv yog tus nqi tiag tiag, thiab nws yog tib qeb nrog cov luv nqi tiag tiag ntawm kev muab hnub no. Qhov kev txwv uas tsim nws yog cov hauv qab no -50% kev siv luam tawm ntawm pej xeem kev muaj peev xwm: idled kab rov pib dua lub sijhawm cov npoo rov qab, thiab rov pib dua yog engineered, tsis instant. Xav tias muaj rau -rau-10 lub lis piam lag luam ntawm ib qho nyiaj rov qab thiab rov qab muab khoom. Daim ntawv cog lus Q4 ntim tam sim no; luv nqi yog tiag tiag thiab nws yog finite.
Civil zeb khoom (phaj, welded raj, bar) - qhov rais khiav mus txog lub Kaum Ib Hlis.Mill- cov nqi khoom lag luam tsis tau ua raws li daim txhuam cev; lawv tsuas nres nce. Cov neeg ua haujlwm tau nqus cov sib kis zoo dua li qhov rov ua dua rov qab, uas txhais tau hais tias muaj chav sib tham ntawm cov lus cog lus ntim txawm tias daim ntawv teev nqi yog tiaj tus. Deal nyob rau hauv ntim thiab lub sij hawm xa khoom, tsis yog nyob rau hauv nqi ib leeg.
TC4 thiab aerospace- cov ntaub ntawv qib - tsis muaj qhov rais; ua tam sim ntawd. Hwm aerospace titanium yog tswj hwm los ntawm lub peev xwm tsim nyog, tsis yog los ntawm tus nqi khoom muag, thiab lub sijhawm ua haujlwm tau khiav ncig20 hli. Hloov peev xwm tsis tuaj online ua ntej 2027-2028. Hauv qeb no cov peev txheej tsawg yog qhov chaw tsim khoom, yog li "tos tus nqi zoo dua" tus nqi xa khoom, tsis yog nyiaj.
Spherical hmoov rau additive manufacturing - tseg 2027 yaj muaj peev xwm tam sim no. Kev xav tau kev loj hlob hauv ntu no tau khiav ntawm 30% + txhua xyoo tiv thaiv lub peev xwm uas luv luv. Cov neeg yuav khoom hmoov tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo rau kev muaj peev xwm ntau dua li cov khoom siv, thiab kev tshwj tseg tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo ua ntej xyoo xa khoom.
Cov ntawv pov thawj thiab kho mob- cov qib uas nyob ib sab - pib tsim nyog rau lub quarter no.Qhov no yog qhov nrawm tshaj plaws - daim ntawv thov loj hlob hauv kev ua lag luam, thiab qhov uas txiav txim siab leej twg muab nws yog cov ntaub ntawv - chemistry, tshav kub -ntaus traceability, audit keeb kwm - tsis yog nqi. Kev tsim nyog cycles khiav rau lub hlis. Launching tus txheej txheem tam sim no tso koj nyob rau hauv ntau lawm rau 2027 kev txiav txim kom tau txais; launching nws nyob rau hauv Lub ib hlis ntuj tsis.
Cas lub tiaj tus ntawv tsis qhia koj
Peb qhov muag tsis pom muaj teeb meem ntau dua li tus naj npawb xov tooj lub lim tiam no.
1. Qhov nruab nrab tiaj tus tuaj yeem nkaum qhov kev sib tw nthuav dav-nug
Thaum luam tawm ntau yam tsis txav mus, muaj nyob hauv qhov ntau yam tsis tso tseg. Cov kev ntsuam xyuas lub lim tiam no piav qhia txog kev ua lag luam nyias nyias nrog cov ntaub ntawv- los ntawm - rooj sib tham, thiab qhov ntawd yog qhov xwm txheej uas qhov kev sib kis ntawm qhov zoo tshaj plaws thiab qhov tsis zoo tshaj plaws tau nthuav dav. Qee qhov kev sib kis tau raug cai: kev siv tshuaj lom neeg, desalination thiab electrolysis tuaj yeem ua haujlwm zoo kawg nkaus ntawm Qib-1 lossis Qib-2 daim txhuam cev, thiab qhia Qib-0 qhov twg Qib-2 txaus roughly ob npaug ntawm cov khoom siv tsis muaj txiaj ntsig. Tab sis kev nthuav dav kuj tseem yog qhov kev hloov pauv qib thiab keeb kwm tsis meej tshwm sim. Tshawb xyuas chemistry thiab cov ntaub ntawv zeb, tsis yog tus lej hauv qab ntawm daim ntawv tsocai.
2. Tsis txhob siv pej xeem softness li leverage ntawm aerospace nug
Ob tiers tau decoupled tag nrho. Pej xeem daim txhuam cev poob vim muaj nyiaj seem; aerospace- cov ntaub ntawv qib yog ruaj khov vim muaj peev xwm raug muag tawm, nrog rau lub sij hawm txhuas txuas ntxiv es tsis ua kom luv. Aerospace thiab kev tiv thaiv daim ntawv thov suav txog kwv yees li 45% ntawm lub ntiaj teb titanium cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev lag luam, thiab qhov nrawm tshaj plaws - ntu - kho mob cog - tau kwv yees tias yuav nthuav dav li ntawm 7.2% ib xyoos ib zaug txog xyoo 2034. Tsis yog ob lub pas dej xav tau teb rau pej xeem oversupply. Ib tus neeg yuav khoom uas qhib TC4 kev sib tham los ntawm kev hais txog cov sponge pheej yig yuav tsuas yog qhia tias tsis muaj qhov seem tonnage rau luv nqi.
3. Kev qaug zog hauv teb chaws tsis yog kev lag luam tsis muaj zog
Export muab tsis tau ua raws li daim kab xev hauv tsev. Qib-0 daim txhuam cev FOB Tuam Tshoj tseem nruab nrab$6,800/ton- tus nqi them tsis tu ncua uas qhia txog cov neeg tsim khoom nyiam rau cov ntawv cog lus xa tawm ntim tshaj qhov txo nqi hauv tsev. Lub Xya Hli sponge xa tawm mus txog 572.4 tons, nce 33% xyoo- ntawm- xyoo, thaum kev xa tawm poob rau 56.8 tons; raj xa tawm tau nce 36% hauv thawj ib nrab, pawg muaj zog tshaj plaws hauv lub zeb- khoom pob tawb. Nyob rau sab thoob ntiaj teb, tus qauv hwm tsis tau txav mus rau tag nrho: Tebchaws Europe ntawm $ 13.76–15.20 / kg, ntau dua ob npaug North America ntawm $ 6.17–6.81 / kg, nrog Northeast Asia ntawm lawv $ 6.93–7.65 / kg. Cov neeg yuav khoom nyob sab Europe yuav tsum xav tias thaj av ntawd cov pa roj carbon - ciam teb levy - kwv yees li € 150 / ton - nyob hauv tus nqi tsaws, thiab lees paub nrog cov neeg muag khoom seb nws puas tau hais hauv nqe lossis raws li ib txoj kab sib cais.
Dab tsi Yuav Hloov Qhov Kev Pom no
Kev ua lag luam ncaj ncees nyeem yuav tsum yog cuav. Peb qhov xwm txheej pom tau yuav txav peb tawm ntawm "pem teb tau lees paub" txoj haujlwm:
Confirmation, tsis contradiction:yog tias cov hauv qab no -50% kev siv luam tawm txuas ntxiv mus rau Lub Kaum Hli, hauv pem teb hardens thiab lub qhov rais-qib pej xeem nqaim sai dua li daim duab saum toj no. Ua ntej, tsis yog tom qab.
Kev xeem xav tau: upstream firming tsuas yog dhau los ua qhov sib txawv yog tias cov xim xim -sector tus nqi txiav txim hloov mus rau hauv qhov kev txiav txim tiag tiag es tsis yog nqus los ntawm cov khoom muag channel - uas tseem nyob ntawm kwv yees li ib hlis ntawm cov khoom tsim tawm. Saib kev txiav txim kom tsawg, tsis sau cov nqi.
Reversal signal: ib qho kev tshaj tawm ntawm ib ntu rov pib dua ntawm txoj kab kev txo pej xeem loj yuav txhais tau tias lub qhov rais kaw tsis yog qhib. Qhov ntawd yog qhov ua kom nrawm nrawm, tsis txhob tos.
Lub tswv yim version:ib qho chaw pov thawj yog qhov kev txiav txim siab, tsis yog chav tos. Civil-qib cov neeg yuav khoom muaj qhov luv nqi tiag tiag thiab qhov kawg rau lub Kaum Hlis lig. Aerospace, additives thiab kho mob buyers yeej tsis muaj ib tug nqi qhov rais ntawm tag nrho cov - lawv txwv yog lub sij hawm ua thiab tsim nyog, thiab ob qho tib si twb khiav lawm.
Peb Titanium Mill-Cov Khoom Muag
| Khoom | Qib | Specification |
|---|---|---|
| Titanium Tubes | TA1, TA2, TC4 | Welded & seamless, ø6-325 hli phab ntsa 0.5-12 hli |
| Titanium phaj | TA1, TA2, TC4 | Kub- dov & txias- dov, 0.5-50 mm thickness |
| Titanium Bars | TA1, TA2, TC4 | Round / hex / square, ø5-300 mm |
| Titanium hlau | TA1, TA2, TC4 | Ø 0.1-8.0 hli, spooled |
| Titanium Sawb / Ntawv Nyiaj | TA1, TA2 | 0.02-1.0 hli thickness, hlais mus rau dav |
| Cov qauv | ASTM B265/B337/B338/B348/B863 / F136 | AMS 4911 / 4928 / 4942 / 4943 yog thov |
Txhim kho Q4 ntim thaum hauv pem teb raug txheeb xyuas
Civil-qib titanium yog pauv peb mus rau tsib feem pua ntawm cov neeg tsim khoom breakeven, thiab cov nqi hauv qab hauv qab nws tau nce. Aerospace, additives thiab qib kho mob raug txwv los ntawm lub sijhawm ua haujlwm. Xa koj cov qib, qhov ntev thiab lub hom phiaj ntim rau peb - peb yuav xa rov qab ib qho ruaj khov- nqe Q4 nqe lus nrog cov ntaub ntawv sau tag nrho thiab cov ntaub ntawv xa tawm.
